TECH Update: The Future 10-20 years

I've decided to take a look at the future, what we can reasonably expect within the next 10-20 years in relation to technology and how it changes our society.I know you are probably wondering why I'm not talking about the State of the Union, let it sink in, and I'll have something up soon after all the analysis craze going on with the media. Here we go!

Facebook: It's plainly obvious, that with Facebook's userbase growth, it has had to hire more and more people. As the company grows, so do the government's ability to regulate it. When Facebook hits a certain Stakeholders benchmark, the SEC will force it to release financial statements to the public (although it may remain private). When this happens (over the next 4-5 years), Facebook won't want to give up that information without the benefits of a public company and an IPO. They will go public then (most estimate 2012) or will wait it out a bit longer till the government officially forces it to go public. 

Mark Zuckerberg is famous for his micro-managing and hands on approach to everything (which is why its success is always attributed to him, as well as its flops). So why is this important? When it goes public, Facebook will be directly accountable to its shareholders in different ways. There will be more stress on it to make larger revenues by its investors as it is traded in the public market which may make the site more obtrusive in what many consider to be too inconsiderate of users' privacy. This will create a conflict between Facebook's users and shareholders. At the same time, Mark Zuckerberg will not have the same control he typically has, and will be able to be kicked out of the company if a privacy flop goes seriously wrong (though I doubt that will actually happen, since he's dealt with them many times, that's like Apple firing Steve Jobs today, not going to happen, Mark is Facebook's image). I recently posted a long piece specific to Facebook, click here.

Smart phones: Although the overwhelming majority of U.S. and world cell phone users don't have smartphones, the amazing growth of these phones shows that they will soon overtake traditional phones for the majority of users in the 1st world, and even 2nd world countries. Yes they are more expensive, but when companies like AT&T slash prices of older smart phones (the iPhone 3GS) to 50 dollars a piece, it greatly expands the people who will be able to afford them. Yes, they will be getting and older version, but it will be their introduction into the smart phone market, a market that few ever leave back to feature phones. Expect Windows to keep making strides, Apple to continue to innovate, and Symbian and Androids to drown all other competitors world wide (Nokia and Google respectively). Some studies even show that traditionally computer based communications like email are making a leap over to mobile as more people send emails from phones and not computers. 

Another important point, is that your phone is going to become your wallet. Mobile payments are going to be the "next frontier" in e-billing. You will be buying things on your phone, or buying them in the store, and scanning your phone to pay (like you swipe a credit/debit card). Doubt that's the future? Paypal is already getting into it. Starbucks just started accepting mobile payments in all stores nationwide.  Although I said Smart phones will become the norm, I also think that this mobile payments will become so necessary in our lives that they will be available on limited feature phones. The fact is, if you forget your wallet, it sucks, but you can move on, however, for more people, if you forget your phone (especially your smart phone) your day and life are over. You MUST find it before continuing your day. With your phone on hand all the time, more so than a wallet or purse, mobile payments are only natural. Here's an article on why many think this is a winning strategy for Starbucks.

Gaming: (For all your gaming whores out there). As you will probably expect gaming is going active. First initiated by the Nintendo Wii, both Microsoft's Xbox Kinect and Sony's PlayStation Move have all brought to the market more active games. In these games you no longer just sit and click buttons, rather, you stand up, jump around, kick, punch and more while clicking buttons to play virtual sports, practice your fitness, or play through adventures. Yes, the hardcore gamer will always use the current technology to play shooter games and serious adventure games, however, since all the major companies have invested in it, they will work with game design companies to make more intense games that use their new controllers. There will be a point when these newer gaming systems with a combination of camera, stick controllers, and headsets that use brainwaves to control virtual objects, that will give us the ultimate gaming experience.

The gaming masses will choose  this experience over the systems we have today. Today's "serious" gamer, will be tomorrow's grumbly niche lover. On the mobile side of gaming, Nintendo is going to introduce it's Nintendo 3DS, part of it's usually hand held gaming systems. This newer one got much attention because it showed 3D graphics for its games without any 3D glasses. Many have put off 3D as dead, but I still think it will need some adjustment before it is convenient for average users. Although the Nintendo is improving the handheld gaming system, I think in the long run, these systems will die off. Smartphones are are huge gaming platform, and as they get more advanced, will overtake the 3DS and others with popularity in games. As in other aspects of gaming systems, hand helds, will become a niche platform for hardcore gamers or just Pokemon fans (though that can change!)

Cars: The future to any reasonable being for cars is more fuel efficiency, or convergence with electricity. Nissan's Leaf has created a lot of attention and Toyota's Prius (hybrid) has already garnered a large base. Cars will also become much safer in different ways. Think about it, in the early 2000s, if a car had a 5 star crash test rating it was impressive, but today, if a car doesn't it won't do so well; nearly all cars do meet the 5 star standard. The future of car safety is not going to be able making the actual car safer (though that will be researched), rather, companies will start to invest in avoiding crashes altogether. Yes, cars that drive themselves. 

I don't think we can expect cars that drive themselves well over the next 20 years, but the research will be critical in the coming years. Lexus already has a car (that it sells) that can parallel park by itself. Small tech firms are always researching with universities ways to make them more efficient in automated car races across all kinds of terrain. Furthermore, the military is doing some heavy investment in robots that drive themselves and larger cars and tanks to reduce the risk of human soldiers. Interestingly enough, Google is investing in automated car systems. Unusual? Yes. But that's what everyone said when they invested in Android, and today that OS makes them billions and sells more than Apple's iPhone. Although I don't think it is very likely to take hold, there is some research over a car system that would allow a larger truck to take control of users cars temporarily for them to do tasks like read, or drink/eat something. Check it out.

Aid: The fact is, technology makes our lives extremely easy, but it can also help uplift people. A women has come up with a new design and system to create a jacket that transforms into a sleeping bag for the homeless. Although starting in the U.S. it can be greatly applied to the poor around the world. An engineer once held a TED Talk about his product, and the company he started around it: A bottle water that instantly purifies water in less than a second. The Talk was very revealing and you have to see it for yourself. Here it is, it's just 10 mins long. 

On top of those, recently the Indian government has gotten considerable attention for it's investment in an incredibly cheap (and small) car that would be affordable for hundreds of millions living under the poverty line. Now-a-days it has also gotten attention for a ridiculously cheap laptop that it will be introducing to give access to poor Indians to technology and computing basics to help integrate them into a high tech world.