Conditions of Revolution

With all that happened in Tunisia and Egypt, and all that is ensuing in nations like Algeria, Bahrain, Libya, Jordan, Yemen, Iran, and Palestine I was on the watch for when and where the next revolution would occur. My search does not mean that all other uprisings are virtually over, far from it, many are just gaining strength. Much reformation needs to be done in Egypt and we won't see free elections for some six months, and Tunisia has had a controversial and chaotic switch to power for a new government. Meanwhile in countries like Libya, dictators refuse to step down while using jets to bomb protesters and tanks move into major cities in others like Bahrain.

Having said this, there are trends that can be seen in between all these uprisings. Those who lead them, the tools they use, the effects they bring, and the reactions of the governments are all remarkably similar. Furthermore, conditions, pre-uprising are even more similar on a country by country basis. 

For decades, the middle east has been characterized by its dictators and "oil sheiks". Democracy was not advocated widely by western countries and the status quo was accepted for what it was. That world is rapidly changing, and I predict things will never be the same. Inspired by the success of protests in Tunisia, Egyptians (and others) took to their streets to march against one of the regions most famous and controlling dictators, Hosni Mubarak. After many weeks Mubarak finally resigned and what many thought was impossible, in fact, was. These successes have inspired a new wave (mostly from Tunisia's victory) of protests against Arab governments across the region.

There is no doubt that the call for freedom is persuasive and can move generations, however, there must be certain conditions within a society that must be present in order for a revolution to develop, let alone succeed. 

There are striking similarities between the different nations where these uprisings have started. First are the pro-uprising conditions. Slow economic growth and/or the struggle of the middle to lower class to make a respectable living is what typically begins these protests. In fact, most of the uprisings as of late have begun on an economic basis. So why not call for economic stimuli? or for a government plan to help increase payments to workers? Because, as Reagan once said "...government is the problem." Although I disagree with its use in western developed countries, I use the quote to show that these dictatorial governments were hindering economic growth but also, hindering social advancement of its lower and middle class. By taking in massive oil profits for themselves without reinvestment or favoring an elite minority, these governments rip their people off every day. In many of these countries, in order to be successful, you had to know someone in the government with strong connections to get you a decent paying job. The two are mutually exclusive: Either have a dictatorial government, or economic opportunities. This realization by the people prompts the protesters to end chance for more bread, and begin chants of "Down with the government!"

These protests have been mostly led and organized by young Arabs. The reason? They have the largest access to technology and the Arab world's median age is extremely young (in the 20s). In fact, Egypt's median age alone is 24 years old. An extremely young population also means that many of those leading the protests have never lived in a democratic country. With dictators that rule anywhere between 20-40 years, these youngsters are excited to lead change from what they have been raised to know. 

Being so young, most have used the internet and are very tech savvy. Initial protests in almost all countries were organized over Facebook or Twitter, or using Google services. As a result, when protests gained way, almost every government has shut off their internet access in the country to try and disrupt communication. Mubarak's attempt was the largest failure. Without internet, the youth went "old school" and took to the streets passing out fliers and using word of mouth to tell people of march of millions in different parts of the country. No internet does not mean the crushing of a revolution. 

Another similarity is the unfortunate deaths. Winston Churchill once said "Freedom is never free." Even in peaceful protests like in Tunisia and Egypt, there was the greatest sacrifice for a better tomorrow: Life. The fact is, if you want freedom, you better be ready to demand it with your life. No revolution that I know of has ever succeeded without a single death. When someone is killed, their body is placed in a casket and marched around the crowds as protesters pray for their "matyr." This tends to reignite the passion in the protests in the dullest of moments. 

Government reaction has varied, depending on the state and occurrence of events. In Tunisia, former President Ben Ali did little initially to stop the protests, and greatly underestimated how quickly they would grow. Eventually he gave up his power and left his country. As a result, when protests broke out in Egypt, the hard liner Mubarak unleashed his riot police which beat protesters, used water canons, rubber bullets and more. Eventually, protesters and reporters were being attacked by thugs hired by the government to create chaos, but to no avail. After fighting the fate of ben Ali, Mubarak resigned and traveled to a resort. In order to react to protests, the King of Bahrain has publicly apologized for the deaths of protesters and issued an "investigation" into their killing. Furthermore, today, he has officially released political prisoners in response to protesters demands. 50 were released, and although that is good news, there are an estimated 600 total in Bahrain's prisons. As a reaction to protests in his country the King of Jordan, dissolved the government and  instituted a new Prime Minister to establish a new government. Changes are being forced all over the region, and with more to come.

The most stubborn leader of them all has been the leader of Libya: Quaddafi. Being the longest serving of the Arab dictators (around 40 years), Quaddafi is a widely known international figure and "powerhouse." His orders to bomb protesters using his military jets have been carried out although some have defected. Many of his international ambassadors have also stepped away from the government and protesters are gaining control over more cities despite his warnings of a crackdown. Snipers and thugs in yellow hats have been moving through cities and firing at civilians and more leaders in the government defect.

With all these similarities between the countries, the reaction to the protesters will be the only thing different. Some may take the hard line approach of Mubarak and Quaddafi while others will make concessions like the King of Jordan and the King of Bahrain (attempting, but the people are demanding more). Meanwhile, party members in Yemen's main political party have left the government in protests of violence against protesters. 

There is no doubt that when all these major protests are all done, the region will be far different. Using these similarities, we can try to see where the fire my spread again, inspired by the victories of their Arab and/or Muslim brethren. 

 (Interestingly enough, a last minute similarity is that all these protests have been supported strongly online through online attacks and organization through Anonymous, a loosely organized group of hackers online that have also supported Wikileaks and Julian Assange and advocate against any oppressive government action.)

There are key lessons that we learned from the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, a blog post on that shortly!!

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