As I write this post, tens of thousands of people are celebrating in Benghazi as hundreds of rebel fighters win neighborhood after neighborhood in the capital of Libya, Tripoli. In the last two days, the opposition began a new push to the capital to try to end the 6 month old conflict after civilians, inspired by regional democratic protests, marched on their streets demanding that the longest ruling dictator in the region finally step down.
For more on the background of the conflict, Mother Jones explains it well. My regular readers know that I've always stood by international military support for the rebels in Libya; typing in "Libya" in the search bar on the home page will show you a list of my articles on the subject.
The international media is already declaring the end of the conflict. here and here and for good reason. Reports have come in that Qaddafi's sons have been captured and the presidential guard has officially surrendered. Unless he flees, it won't be long before the tyrant himself, Mohammad Qaddafi will be captured.
With the end of the conflict, let's reflect on the players. Fearing accusations of turning a blind eye, France helped lead the way for Euro support for intervention in Libya. Although slower to react, Obama did do his part to support and build the international consensus to intervene. Even more impressive, he had to stave off anger back in the U.S. about another U.S. war.
As with other uprisings, the Libyans' rebel government will have to organize better to help lead a nation. A new constitution, new election and new kind of leader will have to emerge from the smoke to give Libyans a voice in their government. This is never easy and there will be great fluctuations, but as long as the Libyans remember why they fought, they can always realign themselves to the long term goal of the most democratic state.
The Libyan victory is also likely to re-inspire the protesters in Yemen, Syria and perhaps even Bahrain to take to the streets with even stronger conviction that overthrowing a leader is possible. Who can survive if not the longest ruling tyrant named Qaddafi?
As celebrations fill the capital, it is also important to remember a key fear of non-intervention: not intervening would allow Qaddafi to send the message that all a tyrant must do is kill his people and he can support himself easily. There is little doubt that the rebels had any chance without UN and NATO support; their gains hinged on international support. Their victory is a message to the protesters of the region, that in the second wave of the Arab Spring, although more violent and drawn out, can be successful in uprooting longtime dictators. To the tyrants, it sends a clear message that the international community can be effective at supporting local uprisings, and that cracking down on dissidents from the ground, air and water won't end the will of protesters.
Syrians, Yemenis, Bahrainis, Algerians, and Morrocans must all take note. Now, it's about time international support concentrate on guiding Libya to an easier transfer of power but more importantly, on ending the massacre of civilians by Bashar Al-Assad in Syria. Indeed, moral standing always lies with the protesters.
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