Short Post: Learning The Blog ^^^^^^^

Hey guys, short blog today. I just wanted to tell you to check out my new section on the strip on the top about Getting Around My Blog. It will help you get a better use of the site and improve your experience!

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Analysis: Mubarak's Strategy

With all that is going on in Egypt the "president" has given 2 speeches in total addressed to his nation (but watched by the world). So let's review exactly what his speeches mean and his strategy in dealing with the protests.

To help you understand everything that is going on, here is The Wikipedia time line:

Now that we know what has been going on (events are rapidly changing all the time!) let's analyze Mubarak and his strategy. Before all this began, the world's eyes were on Tunisia and many Arab leaders were worried about their nations. Some analysts expected that Egypt would be next, and they were correct.

Mubarak's early strategy was using his police force (not army) to get protesters out of the streets. These included the use of tear gas, water canons (reminiscent of the protests during the U.S. black civil rights movement) and more. Despite these efforts, the protests grew and the violence by police increased international attention and support.

The protests grew in the millions across several major cities and still Mubarak refused to step down. Several European countries and Turkey called for Mubarak to resign, while most others (including the U.S. ) just condemned the violence and defended the protesters right's to assemble. Several U.S. Senators have called for him to step down as of today.

As more pressure grew, Mubarak made his first speech to the nation, outlining his strategy. I couldn't find a full transcript of his first speech, and I'm not big on taking excerpts, but Reuters is a pretty reliable and unbaised sources to get it from here.

Mubarak Speech 1:

He starts off by saying how he's been following all the protests and listening to their demands. In his speech he actually said something very important:

"There is a fine line between freedom and chaos and I lean toward freedom for the people in expressing their opinions as much as I hold on to the need to maintain Egypt's safety and stability ..."

He makes a good point, however, people usually only resort to violence when they have no other alternative. The majority of the protests are peaceful, however, no one would have been violent had Mubarak himself created so many restrictions on political rights while ignoring the economic needs of his people.

He continues:

"The path of reform which we have chosen is irreversible and cannot go backward. We will proceed with new steps that affirm our respect for the independence of the judiciary ... new steps toward more democracy and freedoms ... new steps to face unemployment and increase the standard of living and services ... new steps to stand by the poor and those with limited income. Our choices and our goals are what will determine our fate and our future ..."

Notice how he uses the word "we" when talking about reforms. It is true that Mubarak has opened reforms since taking control 30 years ago. He has created a stronger free market and has secularized the countries government, however, the reform being asked today is something he doesn't seem to want to do: Hand in his resignation.

Finally, he drives home his strongest action:

"I have asked the government to present its resignation today (Friday) and I will name a new government starting from tomorrow ... to effectively deal with the priorities of this current phase ..."

This move was because of a combination of international pressure (well intended and not) as well as from the protests themselves. By doing this, Mubarak creates the image of reform by putting new faces in the government with the possibility of reform, but still remains in power. It's a deceptive move and one supported by Egypt's allies because he remains on top and in power. By appointing his own government he allows for newer faces that will do his deeds while TRYING to create some legitimacy to the government while hoping to decrease the size of the protests.

Soon, as the protests get larger and louder, chants of Mubarak's resignation increase. He comes up to the nationa after resigning the government and appointing a new one with a newer speech.

Mubarak Speech 2: 


I did find a full transcript of the speech, so here it is.  He begins by highlighting his action of instituting a new goverment, as I said he would in my analysis of his first speech:

I have begun putting a new government with new priorities that respond to the youth’s requests.  And I put a vice president who will help lead the improvements democratically and constitutionally for the sake of making these changes and restoring order.

The problem of course, is that the appointing of his cronies doesn't solve the problem at all. Like I said, new faces, same policies. He follows this up with the announcements that made the headlines:

I say this with all truth and independent of the current events – I will not run in new election. I have done enough at the service of Egypt and its people but want to close my service to the country in a good, safe way that keeps the constitution and ensures security.

Many analysts believe that Mubarak was on the verge of relinquishing his position in the government, before these protests even began; these protests have just sped up the process. The problem is that, he would have ended his rule, only to give control to his older son whom he had been vetting for many years now. With these protests, that is no longer an option.  He follows this by making a very passionate statement:

So Hosni Mubarak who speaks to you today, cares a lot for the people he has served for year. This great country is my country , the same way it is every Egyptian’s country — I lived here, and waged war for it and fought for the people and I will die on its land and history will be the judge me.

This shows that even when ousted, he wants to remain in Egypt and won't follow the route that most dictators take: living in another country.  This critical second speech is what I want to spend some time on.

Yes the protesters want him out now, but is it for the best? Could he have some other strategy behind staying in power for months? Let's find out.

Mubarak's announcement to stay in power has made many very anxious, hence the Day of Farewell march that has been going on all day. They are glad he is going to go out of power, they just want it sooner. Mubarak says he will stay for the remainder of his term until September, when the elections will be held. Protesters fear that, over the coming months, as media attentions slowly fades away from Egypt (as the media has a short attention cycle) Mubarak will use his remaining months in power to do several things: Crackdown on protests, further limit media reporting, "take out" either militarily or politically his main political rivals. By doing so, by the time that elections are held in September, Mubarak will be able to leave confident that he has a government that remains loyal to his values without giving in too much to the protesters. Furthermore, this would keep the basic order of things without much reform; just the image of change.  These are all very serious and legitimate concerns, especially in a country who has known 3 presidents over the past 60 plus years, however, let us consider the other side of the coin.

If Mubarak were to listen to the protests and left tomorrow, what would happen? There would obviously be a power vacuum to fill. No, before you even think it, the "Islamists" or "Anti westerners" will not fill that vacuum since they don't have high standings with the protesters, but it is important to point out, that when governments and countries transition from a dictatorship to democracy, the transition is the most important part. If done too quickly, there are extremely high chances of the vacuum being filled up by another dictator. If they wanted to, a military general could have easily taken over things by now, pushing back the protesters and Mubarak out of government at the same time. Thank fully that isn't the case and the military is reluctant to support Mubarak and has been very friendly with the protesters, but it shouldn't be dismissed from the calculation in what will happen.

There was a forum discussion at Harvard's JFK School of Government with several experts in the area. One of the experts, Rami Khouri, Director of the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut, makes an extremely important point: these things take time. We can't compare the government that will be formed now with the governments of today. It took the U.S. government 300 years to move from slavery to equal rights to all races

If rushed things may turn out way worse than they were, however, this could also be a plan by Mubarak to consolidate power even after he is gone.

My favorite correspondent in history, Christiane Amanpour (now working for ABC) got an exclusive interview with Hosni Mubarak.

If you were to follow any of the links that I put up on this blog consider these ones: NYTimes Article that details the "Bumbling Muslim Brotherhood" about [why and] how they haven't gotten to power (to allay your fears of a Muslim Brotherhood take over)

The other is a an article by Robert Fisk, one of the greatest writers about the Middle east and someone who I highly recommend you read. Also this article titled "We are All Egyptians" by Nicholas Kristof, one of Times' best reporters.

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Strong police presence at bikie court appearance

Strong police presence at bikie court appearance | Perth Now: "POLICE maintained a heavy presence at the Perth District Court today, amid fears an ongoing bikie feud would erupt between Rebels and Rock Machine bikie gangs.

The contingent of officers from the Gang Crime Squad and the Perth police station rallied at the Central Law Courts in Hay St at 12.30pm after concerns were raised that Rebels bikies were in close proximity to the rival gang, the Rock Machine.

Police said a member of the Rock Machine had been appearing in court today and there was concern the ongoing dispute would resurface.

One man, a Rebels member, was arrested for disorderly conduct outside the court, while a woman who was with the group at the time was taken into custody for failing to provide personal details to police.

They were taken to Curtin House, the detectives headquarters in Beaufort St, where other members of the gang waited outside while they were questioned by police.



Both the man and woman will be summonsed to appear in court at a later date."

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Egypt: A Prologue to Blood

You say you don't know what's going on in Egypt? See my older posts about it, here, here, and here

Now that you are caught up, let's analyze what is currently going on. Yesterday, President Mubarak announced that he would not run for reelection allowing for a "smoother" transfer of power to give the protesters what they want. The thing is, that the protesters want him out now. He has refused to leave his position until the September elections, and said that he will "die on Egyptian soil." 

Some fear that till the September elections come, Mubarak will use his power to get rid of most his political opponents and help put in place one of his cronies. A legitimate fear which has sparked the anger of much of the protesters. 

 Speaking of which, the protests have set up barricades to block out police men from kicking them out of Tahrir Square. A short period after his address to the nation, Mubarak has ordered the removal of the protests from the Square. The protests have turned violent as I write these words as, what many describe as "government thugs," ride on horses and camels attacking protesters. There were further clashes between pro and anti government forces.

Given that these pro-government forces weren't very apparent or large at the beginning of the opposition to the Mubarak Regime, it is difficult to see why they would grow in size right after Mubarak strongly pushed protesters to stop what they were doing after he agreed to leave his post by the next election cycle. 

At the same time, there have been large instances of reporters being attacked, by these "mobs" even after the government restrictions and harassment by officials. Many from CNN, ABC, BBC and several Belgian reporters were attacked with rocks and some were even surrounded by the mobs. Others from Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya were also greatly harassed as several were sent to the hospital for immediate care. 

Reports show that 1 person has died in the clashes as 611 are wounded.

I have no doubt that peaceful resistance is what is necessary, but the violence is not a product of the anti government movement. The violence was/is instigated by the Mubarak Regime to break up the protests, and although I don't believe that this will result in a Tienanmen Square, I may have turned out that way, had the military not actively chosen not to kill other Egyptians. 

The government is finally taking larger steps to crack down on the protesters but in a way that is less direct; using gangs, mobs, and thugs  riding horses, camels and on foot to intimidate protesters. The move is low, but expected of such a regime. The Egyptians should do their best to maintain a good and peaceful protest. Word is spreading of a major protest in Alexandria called the "Day of Farewell" for Mubarak. I doubt it will be peaceful since the government will instigate violence, but I don't think it can be acceptable that Mubarak wait to transition from power.

This video is to show you just how quickly things are happening.... and changing:

Do not rely on this blog to keep you up to date, use some good news channels because as I post only once a day, my posts can very quickly be outdated! There is a Anti Mubarak protest going on against in Boston that I will hopefully make my way to this Saturday, get some videos pictures and more! I'll also be attending an analysis of Lebanon, Tunisia, and Egypt at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and will fill you guys all in!

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members of the outlaw bikie gang Club Deroes camp at Collie River

Bikies camp at Collie River - Local News - News - General - Bunbury Mail: "ABOUT 25 members of the outlaw bikie gang Club Deroes camped on the north side of Collie River along Old Coast Road last Friday night.
Bunbury police said the bikies had ridden from Perth on Friday and returned the next day.

They were kept under surveillance by Gang Crime Squad from Perth and local police.

Three gang members were refused entry to the Collie Bridge Tavern under liquor control laws.

Police say there are no Club Deroes clubhouses in Bunbury."

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Kingdon receives suspended sentence

Kingdon receives suspended sentence - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation): "The partner of a prominent Perth bikie gang member has been given a suspended jail term for stealing trust fund money.

Tammy Cherie Kingdon, 34, was found guilty of stealing more than $53,000 which had been put into trust accounts for the children of a member and an associate of the Coffin Cheaters who had died.

Kingdon, who is the partner of Finks bikie gang memberTroy Mercanti, put the money towards purchasing a property that became the Finks gang clubhouse, just months after Mercanti left the Coffin Cheaters.

District Court Judge John Wisbey said there were compelling personal circumstances which justified giving Kingdon a two year suspended jail term.

The Court was also told she had reimbursed the trust accounts.

Supporters of Kingdon in the public gallery clapped when the judge said the jail term would be suspended."

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Global Review: A People's Revolution

The revolutions that we've been seeing are truly an "Arab people's revolution." All these protests are a testament to all those who believe in the domino effect. With the success of the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia (there is still much work to be done), Egyptians living under similar conditions were inspired and took to the streets (although these events have been a long time coming). Protests in Egypt followed with massive protests in Jordan, Algeria, and Yemen. No foreign support, no official leaders (most political parties began their endorsements AFTER the protests had begun). 

All inspired by similar economic, political and social limitations. All utilizing modern technology through their youth. These are "modern revolutions" in the truest sense of the phrase. Unique to history because they began through the youth, not old men who wanted change. Innovative in context, because they utilized social networking in countries with very weak internet infrastructures. To catch up with all that is happening (because I've been struggling myself) I'll update you with short paragraphs: 

*** Update**** As I watch a live feed, reports show that the U.S. State Department note that there isn't any noticeable anti american sentiments in any of the protests, while most observers don't view the Muslim brotherhood as much of an influencer in the nation's politics even if the nation did have free elections. To those who fear an anti american government, it may not be so.

Egypt: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has resigned his government and appointed a Vice President for the first time in decades. He has also appointed a new Prime Minister who will have the job of creating a new cabinet and government. Although not officially stated, some are talking of the departure of the President and his family (including his son who many thought would follow him in power) to London. I haven't gotten an official report, so I'm still very skeptical. The protests have been growing and now range in the tens of thousands all at once marching the streets. There is a growing question over the role of the military in Egypt; Arab nations are infamous for military takeovers during fragile times. Egyptian military generals recently (a few days ago) took a trip to the U.S. to speak with U.S. government officials. So far, the Egyptian military has done little to stop the massive protests (what you see in the news is the riot police). What brings all this into question is the fact that the newly appointed Deputy, Prime Minister, and Vice President are all military figures (as was Mubarak when he took power).  Lawlessness and looting have also been reported in different parts of the country as police forces have been retreating.

In an effort to stop the inspiration for protests, China has blocked all content about the Egyptian protests from social networks to general information and websites detailing the events (including this blog probably!  no one no one in China reads this!!! arrgh!) As of today, the county's largest protest so far is estimated at being around 2 MILLION PEOPLE! Al Jazeera is running a live video of the protests (it is evening there as I watch it) You can watch the live coverage in English here. Since starting the Youtube coverage, Al Jazeera's page is now one of the most popular on the site that deals with billions of views a day. The planned march (spread by word of mouth since internet and phone networks are shut down by the government) was supposed to be "A million man march,"  word spread and now it is estimated to be around 2 million. Meanwhile, Hosni Mubarak has already sworn in the new government and is making more concessions, but too little too late for these protests. These 2 million are only the people protesting in Tahrir Square in Cairo. Others have been kept away from the sight for "safety reasons" since there will be too many people. The military is almost non existent and doesn't want to intervene with the politics of the country.

State televisions have been showing pro government protests in the hundreds, far from the millions gathering against it. Meanwhile, Israel has gone on a lobbying campaign to build support for the Mubarak dictatorship against the revolution in much of Europe and the United States.  Israel and the U.S. fear an anti-american government and one hostile to Israel, but the anti-american sentiment in Egypt stems a lot from the U.S. support for Mubarak. It is now in the best interest of the U.S. to drop Mubarak, allow for elections and try to work with the new government. Even if a government is formed that is strongly anti-Israel (unlikely to be as anti israel as the Muslim brotherhood) Egypt wouldn't attack Israel and if it did, it would clearly lose. I don't believe that a more antiwestern government will be much of a threat to Israel. Yes, it will make things worse, and more difficult, but that NEVER warrants the suppression of people's freedoms.

Jordan: Protests inspired by the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt led to the King of Jordan to resign his entire government as protesters demand a new prime minister. The King has now appointed a new ex-general to form the new cabinet. I've mentioned before that this isn't yet a revolution and I don't think it will turn out as such, based on what is happening, but it should. Based on personal testimony made to me by people I know who've been in Jordan, there is a severe lack of freedom of speech. People are not allowed to criticize the government, political parties are limited, government is corrupt and criticizing the King himself will have you sent to jail. Until these basic issues are resolved, we can expect future protests, even if those today die away.

Syria: Syrians are watching the protests around the Arab world very closely and wondering what it could mean for them. There have been no protests, and conditions are not that different than some of these other countries, but it will be interesting to watch if anything come out of this (though I doubt it).

Tunisia: Yes, these protests are still going on. Clearly Egypt has overtake much of the media attention because it is a much more strategic country for the middle east and its rallies are much larger and dealing with a much stronger supported government by the U.S. and other countries. No one even knew much about Tunisia before these protests, but Egypt has made a name for itself over the decades. As protests continue, the country is being stripped of anything related to their old President Ben Ali. His signature "purple" fashion is avoided by protesters, his signs, posters and more are all being torn down as well as massive letters on top of a sky scraper praising his presidency. On Jan 17th, a new coalition government was named to form a new government that many consider a more democratic system. Two political parties have been excluded, which is building up some controversy, but on the whole things are turning out for the better. Reports also show that Secretary Clinton contacted the new government and urged them to implement new reforms for the new nation.

There is also a fundamental point that few have looked at in the media: Wikileaks. Yes the Tunisian protests were inspired by horrible living conditions, and triggered by the self immolation of a man, but Wikileaks also served as a catalyst to the uprising. In it's release of "Cablegate," the State Department's analysis of the President's family (and control of the country) put the government in a very bad light. Wikileaks was banned, but only after the cables were leaked and news spread around Tunisia. Some even wonder whether this is the first "Wikileaks Revolution." I wouldn't go that far myself, but it is a really important thing to consider.

Yemen: Although there are still thousands protesting the government and "president" in power, concessions have helped weaken their numbers. Unless things change, it seems that in Yemen at least, a revolution will not come to fruition. It is important to note that the U.S. has started a newer initiative to work closer with the Yemeni government to track down supports of Osama Bin Laden who have been congregating in the country. Many analysts believe the longer fight won't be in Afghanistan, as much as it will be in Yemen as they build their new base their to launch attacks. This closer relationship really helps strengthen the power of the government and puts even more doubt on protesters changing anything.

Also found this great chart about different revolutions, movements, militancies and stuff you see the differences in them all!

Again, here is the link to watch the protests live (consider time difference, about 6-7 hours).